Heading Back To The Bear Den

2020-03-30

Monte Carlo				Qlearning
OEF iShares SP100	to cash	to stocks		OEF iShares SP100	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	17.6%	25.8%		was cash:	13.7%	0%
was stocks:	23.8%	32.9%		was stocks:	7.3%	79%
	41.3%	58.7%	bullish		21%	79%	bullish
QQQ Invesco QQQ	to cash	to stocks		QQQ Invesco QQQ	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	25.7%	16.9%		was cash:	13.6%	0%
was stocks:	40.4%	17%		was stocks:	6.5%	79.9%
	66.1%	33.9%	bearish		20.1%	79.9%	bullish
TQQQ ProShr UltraPro QQQ	to cash	to stocks		TQQQ ProShr UltraPro QQQ	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	35.8%	17.6%		was cash:	11.4%	0%
was stocks:	16.2%	30.3%		was stocks:	0%	88.6%
	52.1%	47.9%	bearish		11.4%	88.6%	bullish
SQQQ ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ	to cash	to stocks		SQQQ ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	5.8%	29.4%		was cash:	83.6%	0%
was stocks:	15.9%	48.9%		was stocks:	0%	16.4%
	21.7%	78.3%	bearish		83.6%	16.4%	bullish
QLD ProShr Ultra QQQ	to cash	to stocks		QLD ProShr Ultra QQQ	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	35.5%	18.5%		was cash:	14.4%	7.3%
was stocks:	22.6%	23.4%		was stocks:	6.5%	71.8%
	58.1%	41.9%	bearish		21%	79%	bullish
QID ProShr UltraShort QQQ	to cash	to stocks		QID ProShr UltraShort QQQ	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	33.4%	9.3%		was cash:	76.2%	7.5%
was stocks:	8.8%	48.5%		was stocks:	0%	16.3%
	42.2%	57.8%	bearish		76.2%	23.8%	bullish
SPY SPDR SP500	to cash	to stocks		SPY SPDR SP500	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	18.3%	16.4%		was cash:	13.1%	0%
was stocks:	32.4%	32.9%		was stocks:	0%	86.9%
	50.7%	49.3%	bearish		13.1%	86.9%	bullish
SPXL Drxn SP500 Bull 3X	to cash	to stocks		SPXL Drxn SP500 Bull 3X	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	22.8%	7.1%		was cash:	8.2%	0%
was stocks:	21.1%	49.1%		was stocks:	0%	91.8%
	43.9%	56.1%	bullish		8.2%	91.8%	bullish
SPXS Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X	to cash	to stocks		SPXS Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	35%	9.7%		was cash:	86.6%	7.2%
was stocks:	8.3%	47%		was stocks:	0%	6.2%
	43.3%	56.7%	bearish		86.6%	13.4%	bullish
UPRO ProShr UltraPro SP500	to cash	to stocks		UPRO ProShr UltraPro SP500	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	30.3%	6.2%		was cash:	8.5%	0%
was stocks:	21.3%	42.1%		was stocks:	7.8%	83.8%
	51.7%	48.3%	bearish		16.2%	83.8%	bullish
SPXU ProShr UltraPro Short SP500	to cash	to stocks		SPXU ProShr UltraPro Short SP500	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	29.2%	9.8%		was cash:	93.8%	0%
was stocks:	6.6%	54.5%		was stocks:	0%	6.2%
	35.8%	64.2%	bearish		93.8%	6.2%	bullish

A Lot Of Bullishness Except With Some Of The Miner ETFs.

Monte Carlo				Qlearning
GLD SPDR Gold Shares	to cash	to stocks		GLD SPDR Gold Shares	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	49.6%	30.2%		was cash:	6.7%	93.3%
was stocks:	0%	20.2%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	49.6%	50.4%	bullish		6.7%	93.3%	bullish
IAU IShrs Gold Trust	to cash	to stocks		IAU IShrs Gold Trust	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	39.5%	40.1%		was cash:	6.8%	79.3%
was stocks:	0%	20.4%		was stocks:	0%	13.9%
	39.5%	60.5%	bullish		6.8%	93.2%	bullish
SLV IShrs Silver Trust	to cash	to stocks		SLV IShrs Silver Trust	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	21.1%	22.1%		was cash:	7%	75.3%
was stocks:	29.9%	26.8%		was stocks:	0%	17.7%
	51.1%	48.9%	bearish		7%	93%	bullish
SGOL Abrdn Phy Swiss Gold	to cash	to stocks		SGOL Abrdn Phy Swiss Gold	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	19.6%	59.7%		was cash:	0%	100%
was stocks:	0%	20.7%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	19.6%	80.4%	bullish		0%	100%	bullish
GLDM SPDR Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GLDM SPDR Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	39.6%	39.8%		was cash:	0%	86.3%
was stocks:	0%	20.6%		was stocks:	6.7%	7%
	39.6%	60.4%	bullish		6.7%	93.3%	bullish
PPLT Abrdn Phy Platinum	to cash	to stocks		PPLT Abrdn Phy Platinum	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	31.7%	11.4%		was cash:	14.2%	85.8%
was stocks:	30.4%	26.5%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	62.1%	37.9%	bearish		14.2%	85.8%	bullish
NUGT Drxn Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		NUGT Drxn Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	62.2%	21.9%		was cash:	53%	47%
was stocks:	6.2%	9.7%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	68.4%	31.6%	bearish		53%	47%	bearish
JNUG Drxn Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		JNUG Drxn Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	22.6%	12.1%		was cash:	50.8%	9.8%
was stocks:	6.4%	58.9%		was stocks:	39.4%	0%
	29%	71%	bullish		90.2%	9.8%	bearish
GDX VanEck Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GDX VanEck Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	71.2%	9.5%		was cash:	14%	38.6%
was stocks:	0%	19.3%		was stocks:	0%	47.4%
	71.2%	28.8%	bearish		14%	86%	bullish
GDXJ VanEck Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GDXJ VanEck Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	29.8%	23.6%		was cash:	13.2%	53%
was stocks:	21%	25.6%		was stocks:	0%	33.8%
	50.8%	49.2%	bearish		13.2%	86.8%	bullish

And Then There Is The WAEVE Table for $IAU

Avoiding The PMs and Miners Like They Have The Virus

Monte Carlo				Qlearning
GLD SPDR Gold Shares	to cash	to stocks		GLD SPDR Gold Shares	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	58.9%	0%		was cash:	66.9%	0%
was stocks:	21.3%	19.9%		was stocks:	33.1%	0%
	80.1%	19.9%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
IAU IShrs Gold Trust	to cash	to stocks		IAU IShrs Gold Trust	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	48.2%	0%		was cash:	59.9%	0%
was stocks:	22.1%	29.7%		was stocks:	40.1%	0%
	70.3%	29.7%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
SLV IShrs Silver Trust	to cash	to stocks		SLV IShrs Silver Trust	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	48.4%	20.8%		was cash:	92.8%	0%
was stocks:	10.9%	19.9%		was stocks:	7.2%	0%
	59.3%	40.7%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
SGOL Abrdn Phy Swiss Gold	to cash	to stocks		SGOL Abrdn Phy Swiss Gold	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	38.5%	0%		was cash:	74%	0%
was stocks:	42.2%	19.4%		was stocks:	26%	0%
	80.6%	19.4%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
GLDM SPDR Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GLDM SPDR Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	48.3%	9.2%		was cash:	38.5%	0%
was stocks:	32.7%	9.8%		was stocks:	61.5%	0%
	81%	19%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
PPLT Abrdn Phy Platinum	to cash	to stocks		PPLT Abrdn Phy Platinum	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	49.2%	19.7%		was cash:	78.5%	0%
was stocks:	21.4%	9.7%		was stocks:	21.5%	0%
	70.6%	29.4%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
NUGT Drxn Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		NUGT Drxn Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	31%	36.9%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	0%	32.2%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	31%	69%	bullish		100%	0%	bearish
JNUG Drxn Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		JNUG Drxn Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	65.5%	8.9%		was cash:	94.3%	5.7%
was stocks:	0%	25.6%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	65.5%	34.5%	bearish		94.3%	5.7%	bearish
GDX VanEck Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GDX VanEck Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	40%	9.6%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	0%	50.5%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	40%	60%	bullish		100%	0%	bearish
GDXJ VanEck Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GDXJ VanEck Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	61%	0%		was cash:	85.6%	0%
was stocks:	0%	39%		was stocks:	14.4%	0%
	61%	39%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish

$IAU 30 Day View from WAEVE Tables

And Now For Some Bearishness...

Even the WAEVE models are not as bullish as they were.

Monte Carlo				Qlearning
GLD SPDR Gold Shares	to cash	to stocks		GLD SPDR Gold Shares	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	81.2%	0%		was cash:	51.5%	14.4%
was stocks:	0%	18.8%		was stocks:	34%	0%
	81.2%	18.8%	bearish		85.6%	14.4%	bearish
IAU IShrs Gold Trust	to cash	to stocks		IAU IShrs Gold Trust	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	89.6%	0%		was cash:	51.9%	7.3%
was stocks:	0%	10.4%		was stocks:	40.9%	0%
	89.6%	10.4%	bearish		92.7%	7.3%	bearish
SLV IShrs Silver Trust	to cash	to stocks		SLV IShrs Silver Trust	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	48.7%	20.2%		was cash:	100%	0%
was stocks:	10.5%	20.6%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	59.2%	40.8%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
SGOL Abrdn Phy Swiss Gold	to cash	to stocks		SGOL Abrdn Phy Swiss Gold	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	100%	0%		was cash:	59.4%	0%
was stocks:	0%	0%		was stocks:	40.6%	0%
	100%	0%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
GLDM SPDR Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GLDM SPDR Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	60.6%	0%		was cash:	66%	0%
was stocks:	19.9%	19.5%		was stocks:	34%	0%
	80.5%	19.5%	bearish		100%	0%	bearish
PPLT Abrdn Phy Platinum	to cash	to stocks		PPLT Abrdn Phy Platinum	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	40.4%	19.9%		was cash:	86.5%	13.5%
was stocks:	0%	39.6%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	40.4%	59.6%	bullish		86.5%	13.5%	bearish
NUGT Drxn Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		NUGT Drxn Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	40.8%	59.2%		was cash:	93.5%	6.5%
was stocks:	0%	0%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	40.8%	59.2%	bullish		93.5%	6.5%	bearish
JNUG Drxn Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		JNUG Drxn Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	44.6%	43.2%		was cash:	85.2%	14.8%
was stocks:	12.2%	0%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	56.8%	43.2%	bearish		85.2%	14.8%	bearish
GDX VanEck Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GDX VanEck Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	70.1%	29.9%		was cash:	77.6%	22.4%
was stocks:	0%	0%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	70.1%	29.9%	bearish		77.6%	22.4%	bearish
GDXJ VanEck Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks		GDXJ VanEck Jr Gold Miners	to cash	to stocks
was cash:	47%	31.6%		was cash:	93.7%	6.3%
was stocks:	11%	10.4%		was stocks:	0%	0%
	58%	42%	bearish		93.7%	6.3%	bearish